Not to brag – well, just a little – but around two months ago I said that we wouldn't get a big announcement of a new Valve game at this year's E3. While Gabe Newell's endorsement of Sony was a shock, the subject was an already announced game in Portal 2. It was not the kind of surprise we expected of Valve.

Well, maybe that was foolish of us. We all expected Half-Life 2: Episode Three to be finally unveiled at E3 2009. Instead we got Left 4 Dead 2 – remember the furor that caused? Heck, we even expected Episode Three at E3 2008.

It's now been 33 months since Episode Two arrived on our doorsteps in an Orange Box. The gap between Episode One and Episode 2 was 16 months, whereas it was 19 months between Half-Life 2 and Episode One.

In two months time, the wait for Episode Three will eclipse the time period between the first and latest game in the Half-Life 2 series. When you look at it that way, it's easy to understand the complaints that Valve has neglected Gordon Freeman's adventures and the series that made the celebrated developer what it is today. It's even easier when you remember how Episode 2 ended – not exactly neatly wrapped up.

At this stage it's wearisome to speculate on when or even if the Washington-based developer is going to finally show us Episode Three or Half-Life 3 or whatever. But with another E3 come and gone with no HEV suit or thick-rimmed spectacles in sight, I wonder what impact the game's delay will actually have.

Even with the Left 4 Dead 2 controversy and the tease of an announcement in LA, the vast majority of Half-Life's fans will wait it out, however long the wait. We've seen plenty of developer loyalty in last year or so. Just look at the excitement surrounding Diablo 3, even though its predecessor came out in 2000. Consider the commercial success Red Dead Redemption is enjoying because of its developer's renowned history. Gamers have long memories and a surprising amount of patience for such a trigger-happy bunch, so I think Valve could get away with a few more years yet should it need the time.

The fear I have is that the delay will cause Valve to lose much of its console base garnered through The Orange Box in 2007. The bundle's arrival on 360 and PS3 was definitely a big deal for Valve and the Half-Life series, both traditionally limited to the PC. Unfortunately, because of how Valve regards – sorry – regarded the PS3, the EA-developed build wasn't great on Sony's console, with many players complaining that slowdown made certain parts of Half-Life 2 unplayable. Ouch. Still, overall The Orange Box was a success, not least because it was great value for money.

Unfortunately, Valve cannot expect the same loyalty from console players that it gets from its PC base. It may hope that Portal 2 will extend the bridge further, but for many it will be too disconnected from the Half-Life universe to really promote Episode Three – although there's plenty to suggest that the portal gun will make an appearance in a future Half-Life game.

Nonetheless, Valve is not a huge name to console-based gamers, even with the success of both Left 4 Dead games on the Xbox 360. To console gamers, Portal 2 is a bigger deal than the developer making it. Gabe's appearance at Sony's conference may have shocked journalists, but many PS3 fans in particular were likely left wondering who he was, especially after his rather informal introduction.

The critically acclaimed Half-Life could do commercial wonders on the console market, one that’s greatly warmed to first person-shooters in the time since the series' beginnings. The delays to Episode Three may be stripping that potential away. Only time will tell, although whether it will in our lifetimes in another matter.

Post contributed by Sinan Kubba. Questions for the author? Send an email to shoinan@googlemail.com. Visit his site at http://shoinan.com or follow him on Twitter: @shoinan.